Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of "Non-Grain Production” in Hubei Province Based on a Non-Grain Index

Non-grain production (NGP) on cultivated land has become a common phenomenon due to the prosperity of the rural economy and the optimisation of the agricultural structure. However, the excessive use of cultivating land for NGP has threatened food production and the sustainable use of cultivated land. To halt this trend and to ensure food security, the authors of this paper applied a novel non-grain index to measure NGP, which could reflect multiple NGP activities;designated Hubei Province as its object of research;and revealed NGP's spatio-temporal patterns of the past 30 years. We then assessed the characteristics of NGP based on spatial autocorrelation analysis, the Theil index, and geographically weighted regression. The results showed that the value of the non-grain index grew from 0.497 to 1.113 as NGP increased significantly in Hubei Province. The number of high-NGP counties increased, spatial agglomeration became obvious, and the eastern and western sides of Hubei Province witnessed an observable growth in NGP. As a result, the NGP in the eastern and western regions overtook production in the central region. Despite a series of historical subsidy policies and agricultural modernisation initiatives that promoted the planting of grain crops, the policy of "grain on valuable cultivated land” could be better implemented. We conclude by making some suggestions for reducing NGP and protecting cultivated land.

A Study on the Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Driving Factors of Non-Grain Production in China's Major Grain-Producing Provinces.

Food self-sufficiency in a large country with 1.4 billion people is very important for the Chinese government, especially in the context of COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The objective of this paper is to explore the spatial-temporal evolution and driving factors of non-grain production in thirteen major grain-producing provinces in China, which account for more than 75% of China's grain production, using 2011-2020 prefecture-level statistics. In the present study, the research methodology included GIS spatial analysis, hot spot analysis, and spatial Durbin model (SDM). The findings of this study are as follows: (1) The regions with a higher level of non-grain production were mainly concentrated in the central and western regions of Inner Mongolia, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Sichuan, while the regions with a low level of non-grain production were mainly distributed in the Northeast Plain. The regions with a higher proportion of grain production to the national total grain production were concentrated in the Northeast Plain, the North China Plain, and the Middle and Lower Yangtze River Plain of China. The hot spot regions with changes in non-grain production levels were mainly distributed in the Sichuan region and Alashan League City in Inner Mongolia, and the cold spot regions were mainly distributed in Hebei, Shandong, Henan, and other regions. (2) An analysis of the SDM indicated that the average air temperature among the natural environment factors, the ratio of the sum of gross secondary and tertiary industries to GDP, the ratio of gross primary industry to the GDP of economic development level, the urbanization rate of social development, and the difference in disposable income per capita between urban and rural residents of the urban-rural gap showed positive spatial spillover effects. The grain yield per unit of grain crop sown area of grain production resource endowment, the total population of social development, and the area sown to grain crops per capita of grain production resource endowment all showed negative spatial spillover effects. The research results of this paper can provide a reference for the country to carry out the governance of non-grain production and provide a reference for China's food security guarantee.

How Much Did Internet Use Promote Grain Production?-Evidence from a Survey of 1242 Farmers in 13 Provinces in China.

Increasing grain production and ensuring food security are always major issues in China, which are related to the sustainable development of the nation. The sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has brought new challenges to global food security, which highlights the "ballast stone" and "stabilizer" role of food. China's food security must rely on domestic production. As an important production factor, the Internet is also an important channel for farmers to obtain agricultural information, which can effectively reduce the information search cost and information asymmetry. Existing studies have mainly focused on the impact of Internet use on agricultural inputs, agricultural prices, and agricultural efficiency; there are few studies on the impact of Internet use on grain production. To fill this gap, based on the micro survey data of 1242 maize farmers in 13 provinces in China, this paper employs linear regression models and PSM methods to deeply explore the impact of Internet use on farmers' grain production. The results show that Internet use has a significant positive impact on the grain production of farmers. Compared with the farmers who do not use the Internet, Internet use increases the maize yield of farmers by 14.25%. The heterogeneity analysis further shows that the impact of Internet use on the grain production of different farmers varies significantly: the maize yield per ha after using the Internet for farmers of younger, low education level, large-scale, and living in well-developed villages had increased by 13.65%, 15.38%, 23.94%, and 10.64%, respectively, compared with the counterfactual scenario of farmers who do not use the Internet. The results of this paper have passed the robustness test.

Characteristics and Driving Forces of Non-Grain Production of Cultivated Land from the Perspective of Food Security

A large proportion of the cultivated land in China has been used for non-grain production purposes. As food insecurity is worsening worldwide, this issue has attracted attention from the Chinese government. In order to curb this trend and to ensure food security, this paper explores the quantitative characteristics and spatial distribution of cultivated land used for non-grain purposes in Liyang City, Jiangsu Province, and discusses the clustering characteristics and mechanisms behind this based on spatial autocorrelation analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR). The results show that most of the cultivated land in Liyang City has not been used for non-grain purposes, and the cultivated land reserve is abundant. Among all land types, irrigable land has the largest non-grain production rate of cultivated land. There is no significant spatial correlation of cultivated land for non-grain purposes in most towns in Liyang, among which Kunlun Street is in the High-High (HH) zone and Daibu Town in the Low-High (LH) zone. It is also found that the same factor has various impacts on the non-grain production of cultivated land in different towns, and the number of enterprises is the core factor that leads to the non-grain use of cultivated land in Liyang city. Low food prices lead some farmers to plant other crops with higher economic benefits, and also lead to the outflow of the rural labor force. This will not only accelerate the non-grain production of cultivated land, but also cause a large amount of cultivated land to be in a state of unmanned cultivation, further aggravating the proportion of non-grain production in cultivated land.